LUCIO CARACCIOLO LIMES Geo-Strategy Supervisor LIMES Jeo-Strateji Uzmanı One Man’s Terrorist is Another Man’s Patriot Islamic terrorism has thrown America into confusion, and has upset international balances and alliances. We cannot yet attempt to sum up the ongoing geopolitical revolution, but some of the information is already before us: it shows the size of the earthquake caused by the attack on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. The US immediately asked for and got the solidarity of her historic allies in Europe. Some of them adhered wholeheartedly – with Britain at their head – and some with a few bellyaches. But for the moment, the Atlantic Alliance is holding. Mr. Bush, moreover, has skilfully built up ententes (though perhaps only short-term ones) which have revolutionised the world geopolitical map. To strike their target – Afghanistan as Bin Laden’s hiding place – Washington has not only used Pakistan as a tool against the Talibans, it has also obtained the backing of Russia, China, and some swathes of the Indian establishment, the major regional powers. Even Shiite Iran, one of the seven countries the US has classified as terrorist sponsors, has expressed its solidarity with America. They don’t even seem too worried by Mr. Bush’s plans, provided that these are against their Sunni rival Bin Laden and his Afghan friends, and not other Islamic countries. One may point out en passant that America now finds herself lined up with her former enemies – or neutral countries – from the Cold War, against the very people she put in place (the Talibans and Bin Laden, heroes of the resistance against the Red Army, “freedom fighters” as Ronald Reagan put it in the mid-eighties), who are well set up in countries rightly or wrongly considered as friendly, such as Pakistan or Saudi Arabia. This should make our American allies a little more cautious when they tell us off for being too friendly towards “rogue” states – or “states of concern” - such as Libya or Iran. America has replied to war with war. The Twin Towers-Pentagon tragedy has compacted the feeling of patriotism. This will not be a war without “collateral damage” (dead foreigners), but a full-frontal clash where thousands of Americans have already died – as well as many foreigners, with Italians among these. To avenge their deaths and to protect the homeland, Americans are playing their lives. So they are not going to be too worried about foreigners. But how long can this alliance last, covering as it does many countries throughout world? It is holding together different and sometimes hostile interests, which will decide whether America and her allies win or lose. If it is true that the aims of Bin Laden and his friends are the destabilisation of moderate Arab regimes, those lined up behind the West (at least as far as they can), the solution lies in stopping him in his tracks. And here Washington finds itself at a dangerous crossroads, with destabilisation of terrorist networks on the one side, and the need to keep the moderate Arab and Islamic countries in the coalition on the other. Many of them are a home to more or less clandestine, anti-American terrorist bases. Hitting Lebanon is maybe possible. But if an attack were launched against Iraq, what would the consequences be? It doesn’t bear thinking about. It is now time, above all, to finally tackle the Israeli-Palestinian issue. This is neither a local nor a regional problem anymore. It is a global problem. It is our problem, too. Therefore, we need a global and relatively permanent solution to this global problem. This cannot be the outcome of direct negotiations between the parties. They will never find a common solution. So America and the international community have to impose a solution to both the Israeli and the Palestinians, based on the creation of a viable Palestinian State, separated from Israel and not threatening it in any way. Jerusalem itself should be the Capital of both Israel and Palestine. I know this would be a very difficult compromise, but the alternative is a major war which may, in the end, bring about the destruction of both Israel and Palestine. Therefore, both parties need strong and reliable leaderships. To say the least, Arafat is not in control of his people anymore. Sharon is certainly much more legitimated, but he has to face the return of Netanyahu as an alternative: in any case, the Israeli prime minister is able to deliver, much more than the Palestinian chairman is. This gap has to be filled or any agreement will be based only on wishful thinking. Finally, to win this war against terrorism, the target must be well identified. Wiping terrorism off the face of the earth is wishful thinking. Partly because one man’s terrorist is another man’s patriot. There is no objective definition which can be used to decide whether somebody is or isn’t a terrorist. What can – and indeed must – be done is destabilising large-scale terrorism, using all the means we have: from politics to finance, from the intelligence services to the use of military might. This sort of terrorism can wipe out thousands of people at a time, and overturn the civil and social peace of our countries. We must either liquidate it, or it will liquidate us. LUCIO CARACCIOLO: BİRİ İÇİN TERÖRİST OLAN, BİR DİĞERİ İÇİN VATANSEVER OLABİLİR İslam terörizmi Amerika’yı karışıklığa sürükledi, uluslararası dengeleri ve ittifakları bozdu. İkiz Kuleler ve Pentagon’a karşı düzenlenen saldırılar sonrasında ABD hemen Avrupa’daki tarihsel müttefiklerinin desteğini istedi ve aldı. Başkan Bush, aynı zamanda dünyanın jeopolitik haritasında devrim yaratan bazı anlaşmaları da büyük bir başarıyla oluşturdu. Bin Ladİn’in saklandığı yer olduğu için hedef olan Afganistan’ı vurmak için Washington, sadece Pakistan’ı Taliban’a karşı kullanmakla kalmadı, aynı zamanda bölgedeki temel güçler olan Rusya, Çin ve Hindistan’ın bir kısmının da desteğini kazandı. Hatta ABD’nin teröristlere destek veren yedi ülke arasında saydığı Şii İran bile Amerika’yla dayanışma içinde olduğunu ifade etti. ABD Soğuk Savaş dönemindeki düşmanlarıyla ve nötr ülkelerle, Pakistan ve Suudi Arabistan gibi daha önce dost olarak gördüğü ülkelerde bulunan ve ABD’nin mevcut konumuna getirdiği kişilere karşı birlik oluşturma durumunda kaldı. Ancak dünyanın çeşitli yerlerinden çok sayıda ülkeyi, çok farklı ve bazen birbirine düşman olan çıkarları içeren bu ittifak daha ne kadar devam edebilir? Bin Ladİn ve arkadaşlarının amacı ılımlı ve Batı’yı destekleyen Arap rejimlerini sarsmaksa, çözüm bu amaca ulaşmalarını engellemekte yatmaktadır. İşte bu noktada Washington’un önünde tehlikeli bir yol ayrımı var: bir yanda terörist şebekelerini bozmak, diğer yanda ise ılımlı Arap ve İslam ülkelerinin oluşan koalisyonda kalmasını sağlamak. Artık İsrail-Filistin konusunu da ele almanın zamanı geldi. Bu, küresel ve göreceli olarak daimi bir çözüm bulmak gerektiren küresel bir sorundur. Taraflar arasında yapılan doğrudan görüşmelerde böyle bir ortak çözüm bulunamayacağına göre, Amerika ve uluslararası toplum İsrailliler’e ve Filistinliler’e bir çözüm empoze etmelidir. Söz konusu çözüm, İsrail’den bağımsız ve İsrail’i hiçbir şekilde tehdit etmeyen bir Filistin devletinin kurulması esasına dayanmalıdır. Bunun çok zor bir anlaşma zemini olduğunun farkındayım ancak diğer seçenek, sonunda hem İsrail’in hem de Filistin’in yok olmasına neden olabilecek büyük bir savaştır.